URGENT: Action on Close Ridings

Posted on by 5 comments

I post the following with some continued misgivings about strategic voting, but trust all of you to decide what to do with the information:

According to Vote for Environment’s polling info, there are currently 62 ridings in which a conservative is leading WHICH COULD BE WON BY THE PARTY IN SECOND PLACE if a number of those voting for the 3rd to 6th place candidates switched their votes.

The following 7 ridings need 150 – 990 votes to switch so that the party in second place could win:

Richmond – Lib 2nd – needs 150 votes
Ottawa South – Lib 2nd – needs 236 votes
Newton North Delta – Lib 2nd – needs 373 votes
Vancouver Quadra – Lib 2nd – needs 608 votes
Saskatoon/Rosetown/Biggar – NDP 2nd – needs 804 votes
Mississauga Erindale – Lib 2nd – needs 925 votes
Vancouver Island North – NDP 2nd – Catherine Bell needs 990 more votes

The following 17 ridings need 1,000 – 3,500 votes to switch for the candidate in 2nd place to win:

W. Vancouver, Sunshine coast – Lib 2nd – needs 1262 votes
Winnipeg – Lib 2nd – needs 1305 votes
Regina – Quappelle – NDP 2nd – needs 1533 votes
Mississauga South – Lib 2nd – needs 1569 votes
Edmonton Strathcona – NDP 2nd – needs 1823 votes
Oshawa – NDP 2nd – needs 1857 votes
Desnethe Mississippi Churchill River – Lib 2nd – needs 1867 votes
Palliser – NDP 2nd – needs 2125 votes
Saanich – Gulf Islands – Lib 2nd – Briony Penn needs 2150 more votes
Huron Bruce – Lib 2nd – needs 2317 votes
Central Nova – Greens 2nd – Elizabeth May needs 2330 votes
Fleetwood – Port Kells – Lib 2nd – needs 2779 votes
London West – Libs 2nd – needs 3005 votes
Parry Sound- Muskoka – Lib 2nd – needs 3305 votes
St John’s Mt Pearl – Lib 2nd – needs 3318 votes
Regina Lumsden Lake Centre – NDP 2nd – needs 3428 votes
Oakville – Lib 2nd – needs 3496 votes

This would result in 16 additional liberal seats, 7 additional NDP seats, a seat for Elizabeth May and a total of 24 fewer Conservative MPs.

There are 38 additional ridings in which voting for the 2nd place candidate could defeat a conservative with over 3,500 votes shifting. For details see the chart on www.voteforenvironment.ca
The link is: http://www.voteforenvironment.ca/sites/voteforenvironment.ca/files/SplitVoteEffectfinal.pdf


5 comments on “URGENT: Action on Close Ridings

  1. And here are the eight, yes eight!, LeftCoast ridings that are, according to the always careful Greg Morrow, are 'Too Close To Call With A Con Involved: VanQuad….NorthVan…. SurreyNorth…..Richmond….NewtonNorthDelta…VanIsleNorth….Saanich…Esquimalt….

    All the details on Lotuslandian ConStopping possibilities (ie. it's more than just the Environment that must be saved) at my place.


  2. I sure hope people in BC pay attention. Not sure how much time is left to influence Ontario voters. I know my Face Book inbox is full of please from every progressive organization on the net, pleading people to (a) vote and (b) vote wisely. The only party that fully understood this message was the Bloc sad to say. Every ounce of energy spent by the LIB, NDP and GREENs dissing each other was a huge waste imho. It seems like that NGOs and grass roots movements are the only ones doing the heavy lifting in trying to trounce Harper. What a despicable election.

  3. This exercise is pointless. You assume just because it was close last time that it will be this time. People don't necessarily vote the same from election to election plus you have people moving in and out of ridings all the time, There are also changes to electoral geographical boundaries.

  4. I can't agree more. I felt that this election was confusing, at best.

    I fear watching the voting results, knowing that they could spell an awful outcome for the people of Canada. However, how can so many people be so 'right' (in their 'left' persuasions) and still be so far on the outside of the decision making process?

    I guess the optimist in me tells me that the progressive people of Canada will finally decide on how we'll approach the next election. A different party? Probably not. I mean, do you think we'd be able to consolidate the way the Conservatives did before the last couple of elections? I doubt it.

    Something completely different? A 'Long Tail' collective? Highly unlikely. The media will depict anything new as a bunch of misfits and radicals. It would also further fragment any chance the will of the majority of Canadians ever gets heard again.

    A coalition if it's a Harper minority? Maybe. In fact, this is probably the best hope to usurp the Harper Conservatives and steal the minority win from them.

    With that in mind, we'll wait a few more hours and then I make this suggestion: we don't douse the energy. We don't walk away from our Facebook pages and individual blogging / reporting. We consolidate. We agree on one 'representative' (whether it's a group or a 'leader') and we pitch for what we believe to be the best thing for Canada. If it's a coalition, then we start organizing a coalition 'conference' where the majority of Canadians get what they asked for.

    And we have conditions attached. Examples: the first act of Parliament is one that supports PR.

    Next steps?

  5. I very much disagree KPK…..there is a whole lot more than 'last time' in my Lotuslandian Con-Stopping suggestions, including rolling polling…..And if you think that VanIsleNorth, Saanich and the Isles, VanQuadra and FleetwoodPortKells can't be flipped by people being smart, well, I think you, perhaps, just might not be.

Leave a Reply