Excited Delirium

Stories about Excited Delirium, the Shock Economy and a little fiction here and there.

Category Archives: Steve

MayDay 2011: New Seat Projection

OK … so I’m no pollster, but I’m using two resources:

I’ve revised the spreadsheet to reflect my guess-timate of what the seat count might look like depending on the region, the approximate change in voter opinion and the odd black-box estimate for specific ridings, particularly those that are too close to call.

Here’s the total:

  • CPC = 130 seats (from approx 143 seats)
  • NDP = 100 seats (from 37 seats)
  • Liberal = 45 seats (from 77 seats)
  • Too close = 22 seats
  • Bloc = 6 (from 49 seats)

Yes, the Bloc get hammered, mainly because they are getting crushed in the polls.  For good reason:  the Bloc isn’t a national party and Quebecers have finally woken up to the reality that it would be nice to be at the table for a change.

Thank you Quebec – how ironic that you may save Canada yet.

Also, we’re now seeing that Jack Layton made a very prudent choice when he appointed the first NDP MP elected in Quebec – Thomas Mulcair – to Deputy Leader.  It gave the rest of Quebec cause to pause and reflect on the influence they might have if they voted more NDP MPs to Ottawa.

As I generated these estimates, the numbers above got me thinking about the ‘strongholds’ of the Conservatives.

In 2008, 36% of their seats (about 51) came from Ontario.  This is a substantial volume when you consider that Ontario has about 110 seats to offer up.

The greatest reason why the Conservative got so many seats?  Vote splitting.  And the CPC is betting on vote splitting to get them into a majority.

Again, I’m hopeful that this won’t happen because I believe in two major demographic groups driving positive results, particularly in Ontario:

  • the Youth Vote
  • the Baby Boomer Vote

With the Youth Vote (eg. anyone under 30), there has always been a disproportionate volume of voters that don’t make it to the polls, but also a disproportionate volume of voters that have progressive tendencies.  Yes, you might argue that this might split the vote, but they also have a critical resource that they live by:  data resources.  They’ll use tools like Project Democracy and consider voting based on projections to help ensure that the Cons are dead ducks.

The Boomers are a totally different gang of voters that many haven’t really spent enough time analyzing.  This is the year that MANY Boomers will hit the age of 65 and would like to start retiring.  However,

  • Many can’t retire yet.
  • Many don’t own businesses any more – mainly because they’ve sold off their businesses or never owned one in the first place – so they shouldn’t care about corporate tax rates.
  • Many don’t have kids in school, so they probably don’t care about education.
  • Many may feel the need to re-awaken their political destiny that they embraced in the 1960s when they came of age, but neglected in the 1980s and onward as they turned inward to their own interests.
  • Many have lived their lives accumulating debt, so they’re not too worried about passing even more debt on to their heirs.
  • Many are seeing their twilight years with the Harper-lead negotiation of the Health Act and they are scared shitless.

As a result, my prediction is that many of the Boomers will vote for the party that they want to see negotiate the Health Act.  My prediction – weak as it may sound – will be a mix of Liberal and NDP representatives.  I’d like to think that the Liberals will steal from the Cons and the NDP will steal from the Liberals, but that sounds a little too optimistic for me.

That said, there’s still a change that the Cons will be reduced to 40 or so seats in Ontario, with the Liberals and NDP taking the balance.

BC is another key province that has given the Cons their strength.  22 seats went to the CPC in 2008 and I continue to shake my head in disbelief that the folks that I know in BC would allow this to happen.  To really agitate the BC vote, we have to hammer on the fact that it was the Cons that made the HST (Harper Sales Tax) happen there.

The same goes for Ontario.  The HST was brought to us by the federal Cons more so than the provincial Liberals.

With all of these factors at play, my bet is that the final tally will be an NDP-lead NDP-Liberal coalition owning about 155-165 seats.

MayDay 2011: Has Mainstream Media Been Bought?

Over the last 5 years, with particular emphasis on the last 3, the Conservatives have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on TV ads, print publishers and other media considerations in order to promote their Economic Action Plan.  Estimates range in the $120-$150 million per year.

If you’re a watcher of the CBC, you’ll know that they’ve been relatively absent with this network.

In effect, one might argue that the Cons have indirectly paid reporters and news anchors by giving their employers multi-million dollar promotional campaigns to push through their network of viewers.  Of course, I can’t make the accusation directly, but just a couple of years ago, the CTV, Quebecor and Canwest were all going to the federal government to beg for up to $120 million to keep them afloat after the auto crisis.  They got this amount and some in the years to follow.

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about.  Jane Taber’s reaction sums up my feelings nicely.

It’s possible to imagine that they might retain a moderate sense of objectivity in this campaign (or any other), but it’s more than likely that they simply won’t bite the hand that feeds them.  I’ve yet to see a serious critique of the criminality of the Conservative Party of Canada and the level of corruption that goes right to the top of this party and leadership.  If I’m wrong, show me and I’ll gladly eat my words.

Even the CBC has lacked the appropriate ‘teeth’ required to expose the depths of amoral attitudes that walk the halls of the PMO and other cabinet offices.  Peter Mansbridge had the opportunity last week to nail Harper to the ice, but didn’t take the shot.  We all wanted to know why he was found in contempt of Parliament, but we didn’t get to see him squirm.

But here’s a reminder of what we DO know:  Stephen Harper cannot be trusted because he was found in contempt of Parliament, not because he was filibustered as a result of a lame budget or Liberal ambition.  In fact, the Liberals were languishing in the polls and the last thing they would have wanted was an election that would possibly see them emerge with even fewer seats than in 2008.

There’s SO MUCH riding on this election.  I really don’t believe that it’s an understatement to say that our future is riding on it.  But don’t expect that story from the mainstream media.

MayDay 2011: Alice Klein of NOW Toronto Encourages Us to Shake Off Cliches

Alice Klein wrote a piece in NOW Toronto this past week encouraging all of us to accept the fact that in this election, the stakes are extremely high and that the game has definitely changed.

She reminds us that it’s not about voting your passion, but voting for that party that will unseat the Conservative government and push them out of as many ridings as possible.

She’s behind Project Democracy, but there are other projects as well (copied from the Project Democracy site):

  • Avaaz The campaigning community bringing people-powered politics to decision-making worldwide
  • Lead Now Brings generations of Canadians together to take action for our future and hold politicians accountable.
  • Swing 33 Donate strategically in 33 ridings to defeat Harper.
  • Pair Vote – Vote Swapping Support your preferred party while also stopping Harper
  • Catch 22 Campaign A grassroots effort to help defeat the Conservative government in 22 key ridings.
  • The Environment is my Voting Issue Facebook Group An action-oriented Facebook group aimed at holding politicians accountable for their votes on environment issues.
  • Department of Culture A community of Canadian artists, arts professionals and cultural workers concerned about ensuring the social and cultural health and prosperity of our nation in the face of a Federal Government that is aggressively undermining Canadian values.
  • Fair Vote Canada – On August 1, 2000, a group of concerned citizens formed Fair Vote Canada (FVC) with the aim of building a nationwide campaign for voting system reform. We envisioned FVC as a multi-partisan, citizen-based campaign bringing together people from all parts of the country, all walks of life and all points on the political spectrum. Today FVC has members in all provinces and approximately 20 local and regional chapters.

Project Democracy is exciting because it focuses on helping voters get up to date polling data related to their riding.  In many ‘strategic voting’ ridings, the past favours the Liberals, but since the Liberals are sliding in the polls, should we really be electing someone from the past or someone from the future?  I’ve signed up for their email to get riding updates, so I’ll post more information as it comes to my in-basket.

Finally, I can’t repeat this often enough:  you can contact pretty much any riding and help them with calls, even if you’re not from that area.  Human voices are substantially more valuable to campaigners as opposed to those awful ‘robo-calls’ and they remind voters that this is an election about the future of all people in Canada.  Of course, consider your riding and the ridings that are immediately around you as opposed to those that are across the continent!

MayDay 2011: Enough Already! I Support A Liberal/NDP Coalition

Stephen Harper has painted the concept of ‘coalition’ with a most painful and tragic brush that will burn all Canadians.

Obviously, Stephen Harper doesn’t work well with other people.

Obviously, Stephen Harper wants to pretend that coalitions are evil, like those in Israel, Australia, Germany, England, New Zealand, Belgium, India, Finland, and Japan.

Obviously, Stephen Harper is more afraid of a coalition than Canadians are.

Obviously, Canadians will not be that stupid on election day and they will choose the government that they want and that they deserve.

My prediction is that they will elect a collection of MPs that will be willing to work with each other and who will be responsible for investigating the crimes that the Harper Government (TM) is committing behind our backs.

They will elect a Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton coalition.

And I’m OK with that.

Here’s why:

  • People don’t trust the NDP with a majority or leadership title.  However, they also don’t know if Michael Ignatieff is ready for the job.  A Lib/NDP coalition would be best served by appointing the man with the most experience – Jack Layton – as the Prime Minister with Michael Ignatieff as Deputy PM.
  • The NDP have proven that they are willing to work with anyone, but have done this to a fault.  Their support of the Conservatives over the years has caused a lot of people a lot of frustration.  But it’s earned the trust of all Canadians.
  • A Liberal/NDP coalition would be progressive from a centre-left perspective.  It will likely be forced to reverse all corporate tax cuts, letting the Liberals save face with commitments to only return to half-way levels.
  • This coalition will represent the biggest voice in Canada:  urban voters.  It will act on that volume of voters and ensure we have progressive ideals being implemented in our biggest communities.
  • Proportional representation will become a referendum question, one which I’m hoping will be simple and direct and not manipulated by the media.

These are just a few reasons why I support a Liberal NDP coalition.  It’s time to take the fear out of this idea.  It’s time to get rid of Stephen Harper and his Conservative crooks.

MayDay 2011: Stephen Harper Delivered the HST

The Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) ruined one Liberal provincial government (Gord Campbell of BC) and may unseat another Liberal provincial government (Dalton McGuinty of Ontario) in October.

This reflects that the implementation and structure of the HST plan was crafted by the Conservatives with a specific purpose in mind:  bringing down Liberals wherever they can.

In BC, the HST still exists.

Let’s hope people in BC are not quick to forget that the HST was Stephen Harper’s doing.

Let’s hope that people in BC help shut the Conservatives out of Parliament on May 2.

In Ontario, the HST still exists.

Ontario:  you too can have your say on May 2.  Don’t like the HST?  Take your complaint to the top and get rid of Stephen Harper!

MayDay 2011: Harper Shutting Down Democracy

The Conservatives will stop at nothing to shut down democracy in Canada.

The recent issues in Guelph are a clear case of creating confusion and then leveraging that situation to nullify votes.

Sign the petition now to tell the Conservatives to get their hands off the ballots of Guelph residents.

I shame the 5.1 million or so people that support this kind of mindlessness.

…

(Did it work?)

MayDay 2011: Another Day, Another Conservative Scandal

Today, it’s just a reminder of how the Stephen Harper Conservatives have done their best to hide the history related to the war in Afghanistan and the torture of detainees.

As it stands, the records related to the Afghan detainee issue will be withheld until after the election.

So … Canadians have an option.  They can choose to get rid of Stephen Harper and help Canada save face on the international scene (and amongst its own citizens) or we can have many years of burying the facts.

MayDay 2011: RIP CPC, May 3, 2011

Rest In Peace, Conservative Party of Canada.

Yet another scandal has emerged (this one involving the potential use of public funds for a private clinic), pushing me to bang my head wondering why Canadians are giving anyone from the Conservative Party of Canada the time of day.  If any of them come to the door, you should just pull out your wallet and say ‘Here … I’ll save you some time’.

So … I’m pleased to be the first to announce that the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) is on the table, heart-beat fading and likely to enter a comatose state May 3, 2011.  Shortly thereafter, the CPC will be declared dead and dysfunctional after its short, but important 8-year existence.

Here’s my rationale:

  • Investigations:  pick one of the dozens of scandals.  Surely one will stick and tear the party apart.
  • Support network fragmentation:  the CPC no longer represents dozens of special interest groups.  During this election, I’m seeing more Green, Christian Heritage Party and Progressive Conservative signs than ever before and, to be honest, I hope to see more.  People should elect what they believe in.
  • Minority:  this will be Stephen Harper’s last chance and it is a desperate one.  When he is defeated on May 2, he will be looking for a new job on May 3 because he has failed three times to bring about a Conservative majority.  Even Kim Campbell did a better job than Steve.
  • Street cred:  the street cred of the Conservatives is dropping rapidly.  Even their own media stooges are calling them on their claims of innocence.
  • Parallel ‘movements’:  there are now many activist movements that are void of political influence, focusing instead on non-partisan principles that all Canadians share.  Example:  OpenMedia.ca or Canada Uncut.  They will work hard (with me included) to undermine basic Conservative ‘values’ that most Canadians do NOT have.

With Stephen Harper gone, the strategists, politicos and others will be washed out as well.  The CPC may even try to appoint someone like Peter McKay to the helm, but it won’t work.  Fragmentation will likely be the biggest issue confronting the May 3 Conservatives and it will tear the party apart.

Canada:  we have momentum.  Let’s make sure that May 2 is the last day for the Conservative Party of Canada.