Tag Archives: CPC

MayDay 2011: 4 Years is Just the Beginning

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I love reading all of the various prog blogs where people continue to be expecting that at the end of 4 years, the Conservative Party of Canada will cease to be interested in running Canada and that this will be when progressives will once again reign true and set Canada back on its course.

They’re so f-ing naive it makes me want to gag.

Let’s accept this:  4 years is just the beginning.  And those years will be the easy part.

I have expectations now that my 7-year old son will be in the streets in a decade or so protesting the dictatorial status of his holiness.

In 2015, the Liberals probably won’t even exist and we’ll be buried with anti-NDP, Jack ‘rub and tug’ ads and all kinds of other dirty tricks to the point that we’ll be willing to throw our grandmothers in front of a train before being so bold as to think a progressive thought when we enter the polling station.

The propaganda will be so intense, so overwhelming and so unavoidable that the number of people turning away from media will be at unprecedented levels.

Let’s flash forward to now.

Within a couple of weeks, I’m optimistic that those who really care about this country will put down their pens and wipe screens and start talking with each other about how to get our country back.

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MayDay 2011: The Last 24 Hours

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I doubt I’ll be able to sleep tonight.

There’s still so much that I would love to expose about the lies Stephen Harper has been telling over the last 6 weeks (and decade or so as well), but I won’t.  There are so many projections, ideas, concepts and so on that I’d love to explore, but I’ve run out of time … and energy.

As the last 24 hours tick down, I’d like to thank all of the readers that have put up with my rants and who have contributed to the blog over the course of the election (and prior to this as well as those who might even continue to hang on).

I also want to beg everyone that has the slightest desire to push Canada into a sustainable future to VOTE.  Progressives outweigh conservatives in this country by a margin of at least 2 to 1, and it’s critical that you vote, vote strategically and vote early on because it’s going to be crowded!

Finally, I’d like to apologize to Stephen Harper for many direct and personal attacks and for insinuations that the Conservative Party of Canada is not a viable option in this election.  But hey … as long as you remain the lying politician that you are and members of your cabinet and other MPs remain suspect in their dealings with Canadian funds and the trust of voters, I’ll keep it up and completely retract anything I’ve said if I’m proven wrong.

Until then, I’ll remind all readers why we’re having this election:  YOU CAN’T BE TRUSTED.

In time, I’ll recover from this election and return to writing fiction and discussing my preferences, which are trashing mainstream media and crapping on poor economic policies that we take.

My expectation is that after tomorrow night, the latter will take a backseat because WE WILL WIN.

We will win this election.

We will win Canada back.

We will win the democracy and leadership that we expect from our politicians.

We will win back what we as citizens, taxpayers, children, grandparents, mothers, fathers, sons, daughters, uncles, aunts and all other relations deserve to win.

We will win our future.

We will win our internationally credibility.

We will win a clean and safe environment.

WE WILL WIN.

P.S.  My prediction for the election outcome is that we will elect an NDP minority government that’s a coalition with the Liberal Party.  My guess is that we’ll have about 110 NDP seats with 40 Liberal seats.  The Conservatives will be left with about 120 seats, most of which will come from Ontario and Alberta.  30 or so seats will be up for grabs.  The Bloc will be devastated, but might squeak out 15-20 seats.

As the fallout from the election sinks in, Gilles Duceppe, Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff will announce their retirement from their parties.

Elizabeth May will retire if she doesn’t win, but I am confident that the good people in Saanich-Gulf Islands will make the right decision for all of Canada and elect someone that will push for Proportional Representation and democratic reform in Canada.

MayDay 2011: New Seat Projection

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OK … so I’m no pollster, but I’m using two resources:

I’ve revised the spreadsheet to reflect my guess-timate of what the seat count might look like depending on the region, the approximate change in voter opinion and the odd black-box estimate for specific ridings, particularly those that are too close to call.

Here’s the total:

  • CPC = 130 seats (from approx 143 seats)
  • NDP = 100 seats (from 37 seats)
  • Liberal = 45 seats (from 77 seats)
  • Too close = 22 seats
  • Bloc = 6 (from 49 seats)

Yes, the Bloc get hammered, mainly because they are getting crushed in the polls.  For good reason:  the Bloc isn’t a national party and Quebecers have finally woken up to the reality that it would be nice to be at the table for a change.

Thank you Quebec – how ironic that you may save Canada yet.

Also, we’re now seeing that Jack Layton made a very prudent choice when he appointed the first NDP MP elected in Quebec – Thomas Mulcair – to Deputy Leader.  It gave the rest of Quebec cause to pause and reflect on the influence they might have if they voted more NDP MPs to Ottawa.

As I generated these estimates, the numbers above got me thinking about the ‘strongholds’ of the Conservatives.

In 2008, 36% of their seats (about 51) came from Ontario.  This is a substantial volume when you consider that Ontario has about 110 seats to offer up.

The greatest reason why the Conservative got so many seats?  Vote splitting.  And the CPC is betting on vote splitting to get them into a majority.

Again, I’m hopeful that this won’t happen because I believe in two major demographic groups driving positive results, particularly in Ontario:

  • the Youth Vote
  • the Baby Boomer Vote

With the Youth Vote (eg. anyone under 30), there has always been a disproportionate volume of voters that don’t make it to the polls, but also a disproportionate volume of voters that have progressive tendencies.  Yes, you might argue that this might split the vote, but they also have a critical resource that they live by:  data resources.  They’ll use tools like Project Democracy and consider voting based on projections to help ensure that the Cons are dead ducks.

The Boomers are a totally different gang of voters that many haven’t really spent enough time analyzing.  This is the year that MANY Boomers will hit the age of 65 and would like to start retiring.  However,

  • Many can’t retire yet.
  • Many don’t own businesses any more – mainly because they’ve sold off their businesses or never owned one in the first place – so they shouldn’t care about corporate tax rates.
  • Many don’t have kids in school, so they probably don’t care about education.
  • Many may feel the need to re-awaken their political destiny that they embraced in the 1960s when they came of age, but neglected in the 1980s and onward as they turned inward to their own interests.
  • Many have lived their lives accumulating debt, so they’re not too worried about passing even more debt on to their heirs.
  • Many are seeing their twilight years with the Harper-lead negotiation of the Health Act and they are scared shitless.

As a result, my prediction is that many of the Boomers will vote for the party that they want to see negotiate the Health Act.  My prediction – weak as it may sound – will be a mix of Liberal and NDP representatives.  I’d like to think that the Liberals will steal from the Cons and the NDP will steal from the Liberals, but that sounds a little too optimistic for me.

That said, there’s still a change that the Cons will be reduced to 40 or so seats in Ontario, with the Liberals and NDP taking the balance.

BC is another key province that has given the Cons their strength.  22 seats went to the CPC in 2008 and I continue to shake my head in disbelief that the folks that I know in BC would allow this to happen.  To really agitate the BC vote, we have to hammer on the fact that it was the Cons that made the HST (Harper Sales Tax) happen there.

The same goes for Ontario.  The HST was brought to us by the federal Cons more so than the provincial Liberals.

With all of these factors at play, my bet is that the final tally will be an NDP-lead NDP-Liberal coalition owning about 155-165 seats.

MayDay 2011: RIP CPC, May 3, 2011

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Rest In Peace, Conservative Party of Canada.

Yet another scandal has emerged (this one involving the potential use of public funds for a private clinic), pushing me to bang my head wondering why Canadians are giving anyone from the Conservative Party of Canada the time of day.  If any of them come to the door, you should just pull out your wallet and say ‘Here … I’ll save you some time’.

So … I’m pleased to be the first to announce that the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) is on the table, heart-beat fading and likely to enter a comatose state May 3, 2011.  Shortly thereafter, the CPC will be declared dead and dysfunctional after its short, but important 8-year existence.

Here’s my rationale:

  • Investigations:  pick one of the dozens of scandals.  Surely one will stick and tear the party apart.
  • Support network fragmentation:  the CPC no longer represents dozens of special interest groups.  During this election, I’m seeing more Green, Christian Heritage Party and Progressive Conservative signs than ever before and, to be honest, I hope to see more.  People should elect what they believe in.
  • Minority:  this will be Stephen Harper’s last chance and it is a desperate one.  When he is defeated on May 2, he will be looking for a new job on May 3 because he has failed three times to bring about a Conservative majority.  Even Kim Campbell did a better job than Steve.
  • Street cred:  the street cred of the Conservatives is dropping rapidly.  Even their own media stooges are calling them on their claims of innocence.
  • Parallel ‘movements’:  there are now many activist movements that are void of political influence, focusing instead on non-partisan principles that all Canadians share.  Example:  OpenMedia.ca or Canada Uncut.  They will work hard (with me included) to undermine basic Conservative ‘values’ that most Canadians do NOT have.

With Stephen Harper gone, the strategists, politicos and others will be washed out as well.  The CPC may even try to appoint someone like Peter McKay to the helm, but it won’t work.  Fragmentation will likely be the biggest issue confronting the May 3 Conservatives and it will tear the party apart.

Canada:  we have momentum.  Let’s make sure that May 2 is the last day for the Conservative Party of Canada.

MayDay 2011: Demand Alternative Debates

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There has to be a way to get additional or alternative debates set up for Canadians that are interested in hearing from the leaders of the Canadian federal parties.

There is loads of technology out there:  Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc.

There is demand.  Hundereds of thousands of Canadians would like to see all of our leaders in various scenarios.

Journalists by the handful have been stating the case for having Elizabeth May in the debates (even though it was decided definitively today that she would not be allowed to attend the debate), but I would also like to see Gilles Duceppe dumped from the English debates.  Giving him the time of day in a national and serious debate about Canada’s future is like asking.

As I’ve mentioned before, the most important questions that should be on the table are “Why is Canadian mainstream media so lame?”, “Why do Canadians believe what our media tells us?” and “What are the alternatives?”


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