Tag Archives: Liberal

MayDay 2011: The Last 24 Hours

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I doubt I’ll be able to sleep tonight.

There’s still so much that I would love to expose about the lies Stephen Harper has been telling over the last 6 weeks (and decade or so as well), but I won’t.  There are so many projections, ideas, concepts and so on that I’d love to explore, but I’ve run out of time … and energy.

As the last 24 hours tick down, I’d like to thank all of the readers that have put up with my rants and who have contributed to the blog over the course of the election (and prior to this as well as those who might even continue to hang on).

I also want to beg everyone that has the slightest desire to push Canada into a sustainable future to VOTE.  Progressives outweigh conservatives in this country by a margin of at least 2 to 1, and it’s critical that you vote, vote strategically and vote early on because it’s going to be crowded!

Finally, I’d like to apologize to Stephen Harper for many direct and personal attacks and for insinuations that the Conservative Party of Canada is not a viable option in this election.  But hey … as long as you remain the lying politician that you are and members of your cabinet and other MPs remain suspect in their dealings with Canadian funds and the trust of voters, I’ll keep it up and completely retract anything I’ve said if I’m proven wrong.

Until then, I’ll remind all readers why we’re having this election:  YOU CAN’T BE TRUSTED.

In time, I’ll recover from this election and return to writing fiction and discussing my preferences, which are trashing mainstream media and crapping on poor economic policies that we take.

My expectation is that after tomorrow night, the latter will take a backseat because WE WILL WIN.

We will win this election.

We will win Canada back.

We will win the democracy and leadership that we expect from our politicians.

We will win back what we as citizens, taxpayers, children, grandparents, mothers, fathers, sons, daughters, uncles, aunts and all other relations deserve to win.

We will win our future.

We will win our internationally credibility.

We will win a clean and safe environment.

WE WILL WIN.

P.S.  My prediction for the election outcome is that we will elect an NDP minority government that’s a coalition with the Liberal Party.  My guess is that we’ll have about 110 NDP seats with 40 Liberal seats.  The Conservatives will be left with about 120 seats, most of which will come from Ontario and Alberta.  30 or so seats will be up for grabs.  The Bloc will be devastated, but might squeak out 15-20 seats.

As the fallout from the election sinks in, Gilles Duceppe, Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff will announce their retirement from their parties.

Elizabeth May will retire if she doesn’t win, but I am confident that the good people in Saanich-Gulf Islands will make the right decision for all of Canada and elect someone that will push for Proportional Representation and democratic reform in Canada.

MayDay 2011: New Seat Projection

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OK … so I’m no pollster, but I’m using two resources:

I’ve revised the spreadsheet to reflect my guess-timate of what the seat count might look like depending on the region, the approximate change in voter opinion and the odd black-box estimate for specific ridings, particularly those that are too close to call.

Here’s the total:

  • CPC = 130 seats (from approx 143 seats)
  • NDP = 100 seats (from 37 seats)
  • Liberal = 45 seats (from 77 seats)
  • Too close = 22 seats
  • Bloc = 6 (from 49 seats)

Yes, the Bloc get hammered, mainly because they are getting crushed in the polls.  For good reason:  the Bloc isn’t a national party and Quebecers have finally woken up to the reality that it would be nice to be at the table for a change.

Thank you Quebec – how ironic that you may save Canada yet.

Also, we’re now seeing that Jack Layton made a very prudent choice when he appointed the first NDP MP elected in Quebec – Thomas Mulcair – to Deputy Leader.  It gave the rest of Quebec cause to pause and reflect on the influence they might have if they voted more NDP MPs to Ottawa.

As I generated these estimates, the numbers above got me thinking about the ‘strongholds’ of the Conservatives.

In 2008, 36% of their seats (about 51) came from Ontario.  This is a substantial volume when you consider that Ontario has about 110 seats to offer up.

The greatest reason why the Conservative got so many seats?  Vote splitting.  And the CPC is betting on vote splitting to get them into a majority.

Again, I’m hopeful that this won’t happen because I believe in two major demographic groups driving positive results, particularly in Ontario:

  • the Youth Vote
  • the Baby Boomer Vote

With the Youth Vote (eg. anyone under 30), there has always been a disproportionate volume of voters that don’t make it to the polls, but also a disproportionate volume of voters that have progressive tendencies.  Yes, you might argue that this might split the vote, but they also have a critical resource that they live by:  data resources.  They’ll use tools like Project Democracy and consider voting based on projections to help ensure that the Cons are dead ducks.

The Boomers are a totally different gang of voters that many haven’t really spent enough time analyzing.  This is the year that MANY Boomers will hit the age of 65 and would like to start retiring.  However,

  • Many can’t retire yet.
  • Many don’t own businesses any more – mainly because they’ve sold off their businesses or never owned one in the first place – so they shouldn’t care about corporate tax rates.
  • Many don’t have kids in school, so they probably don’t care about education.
  • Many may feel the need to re-awaken their political destiny that they embraced in the 1960s when they came of age, but neglected in the 1980s and onward as they turned inward to their own interests.
  • Many have lived their lives accumulating debt, so they’re not too worried about passing even more debt on to their heirs.
  • Many are seeing their twilight years with the Harper-lead negotiation of the Health Act and they are scared shitless.

As a result, my prediction is that many of the Boomers will vote for the party that they want to see negotiate the Health Act.  My prediction – weak as it may sound – will be a mix of Liberal and NDP representatives.  I’d like to think that the Liberals will steal from the Cons and the NDP will steal from the Liberals, but that sounds a little too optimistic for me.

That said, there’s still a change that the Cons will be reduced to 40 or so seats in Ontario, with the Liberals and NDP taking the balance.

BC is another key province that has given the Cons their strength.  22 seats went to the CPC in 2008 and I continue to shake my head in disbelief that the folks that I know in BC would allow this to happen.  To really agitate the BC vote, we have to hammer on the fact that it was the Cons that made the HST (Harper Sales Tax) happen there.

The same goes for Ontario.  The HST was brought to us by the federal Cons more so than the provincial Liberals.

With all of these factors at play, my bet is that the final tally will be an NDP-lead NDP-Liberal coalition owning about 155-165 seats.

MayDay 2011: Enough Already! I Support A Liberal/NDP Coalition

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Stephen Harper has painted the concept of ‘coalition’ with a most painful and tragic brush that will burn all Canadians.

Obviously, Stephen Harper doesn’t work well with other people.

Obviously, Stephen Harper wants to pretend that coalitions are evil, like those in Israel, Australia, Germany, England, New Zealand, Belgium, India, Finland, and Japan.

Obviously, Stephen Harper is more afraid of a coalition than Canadians are.

Obviously, Canadians will not be that stupid on election day and they will choose the government that they want and that they deserve.

My prediction is that they will elect a collection of MPs that will be willing to work with each other and who will be responsible for investigating the crimes that the Harper Government (TM) is committing behind our backs.

They will elect a Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton coalition.

And I’m OK with that.

Here’s why:

  • People don’t trust the NDP with a majority or leadership title.  However, they also don’t know if Michael Ignatieff is ready for the job.  A Lib/NDP coalition would be best served by appointing the man with the most experience – Jack Layton – as the Prime Minister with Michael Ignatieff as Deputy PM.
  • The NDP have proven that they are willing to work with anyone, but have done this to a fault.  Their support of the Conservatives over the years has caused a lot of people a lot of frustration.  But it’s earned the trust of all Canadians.
  • A Liberal/NDP coalition would be progressive from a centre-left perspective.  It will likely be forced to reverse all corporate tax cuts, letting the Liberals save face with commitments to only return to half-way levels.
  • This coalition will represent the biggest voice in Canada:  urban voters.  It will act on that volume of voters and ensure we have progressive ideals being implemented in our biggest communities.
  • Proportional representation will become a referendum question, one which I’m hoping will be simple and direct and not manipulated by the media.

These are just a few reasons why I support a Liberal NDP coalition.  It’s time to take the fear out of this idea.  It’s time to get rid of Stephen Harper and his Conservative crooks.

MayDay 2011: The Conservative iPod Tax

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Micheal Geist explores the lies from the Conservatives about the ‘Liberal iPod Tax’ and discovers that the real tax is coming from the Conservatives.

What are surprise.

Jim Flaherty to Hike Taxes? Probably

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Jim Flaherty and the rest of the Cons refuse to heed the actual outcome of disastrous financial ‘trickle down’ experiments like Ireland and the US (more states in the US are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy because of reckless federal fiscal management and downloading), so it’s unlikely that we’ll get corporations paying their fair share any time soon, but Diamond Jim did give us cause for pause in this interview:

“Our plan actually is to continue to reduce taxes over time in Canada. We’ve reduced business taxes significantly, and our plan continues in that regard. We’ve reduced the federal consumption tax, the GST, as we promised we would … We’ve done some tax reductions on personal income taxes. Quite frankly, we’d like to do more over time, so that’s the direction we want to go. What we’re seeing in the economy is moderate growth. It’s not dramatic, but it is steady. And we expect that to continue over the medium term. You know, given what we’ve all been through around the world in the last few years, I would never presume to say ‘never’ in terms of a very substantial economic shock where we’d have to have one. And there are risks in the world, with respect to Europe, with respect to relative weakness in the U.S. economy, with respect to some global imbalances that I’m sure we’ll be talking about at the world economic forum (in Davos, Switzerland) the next few days. That’s not the expectation. The expectation is that we’ll have continued moderate economic growth and continued tax reductions over time.”

So there you have it folks … the exact quote that the Cons have ripped out of the Liberal lines about tax situations in order to slam them continuously about their ‘tax and spend habits’ and that the Liberals will be mega-government bureaucrats.

Which – correct me if I’m wrong – makes the Cons what?  Oh yeah … BIG F-IN HYPOCRITES telling Canadians lies at every turn!  Isn’t it Jim who’s created the biggest deficit in Canadian history?


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