A Clean Federal NDP Campaign …

… Could Break the Cons and Dirty Oil.

Harper just said F-U to just about everyone in BC who cares about the environment so that he can continue to pad his accounts with cash from Enbridge.

Good.  That means the 2015 election is already over because 42 seats in BC are now up for grabs.

And that means that in about a year and change we’ll have an opportunity to take Canada back from Dirty Oil (aka Stephen Harper and the Conservatives).

So far, the NDP are the only party qualified to do this, given Justin Trudeau’s recent statements that he would allow certain pipelines (if they were done right).

If Canadians want Canada back, the NDP is going to have to outshine the other two mainstream parties and I have a few suggestions:

• For Ontario:  promise to end the fiscal imbalance; bring in new safety standards and regulations for the ‘explosive’ growth in rail traffic related to Dirty Oil.  Focus on energy prices and funding programs and promise to end any/all subsidies to the Dirty Oil business.  Put an end to Fossil Fuel subsidies and divert funds saved to public transit and more efficient commuting in Ontario.  New projects would get 50% federal funding, with 30% from provinces and 20% from municipalities (which, incidentally could deliver more seats if you promise a better funding formula like 2-cents of HST to municipalities for public transit projects).
• For BC:  appeal to those opposed to the pipelines and BC being the oil version of a ‘drug mule’ for Alberta’s booming crack-cocaine business.
• Quebec:  same as Ontario, but focus on the safety of small towns without specifically referring to Lac Megantic (otherwise, accusations of opportunism will fly from all directions).  Do everything you can to maintain your existing base in Quebec.
• Saskatchewan / Manitoba:  the ‘wildcards’, discussed below.

The three big provinces (Ontario, Quebec and BC) represent 72% of all available seats.  In the last election, the Harper Conservatives won a majority by cracking the Liberal base in the suburbs surrounding Toronto and other urban areas.

What do Voters in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Want?

… and what could the NDP offer them?

As an amateur political pundit, I find it nearly impossible to make recommendations concerning the folks in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but the NDP have to ‘crack this nut’, so to speak.

The prairie provinces represent 28 seats.  They rely on resources, but most importantly, oil is becoming a booming business for them as well, so pushing away from Big Oil will also push these voters away.

The NDP would be wise to invest in market research that identifies ‘points of pain’ for these people.  Surely there’s something that the NDP could offer that the other parties don’t (or won’t)?

Alberta?

What can I say?  If you run for Canada, you’re apparently against Alberta.  It seems to have come down to that.

While it’s possible that the NDP might gain in urban ridings, it’s unlikely that the Conservatives will lose any of the 34 seats that are up for grabs in Oil Country.

Results?

Political predictions are a tonne of fun, especially at this stage in the game because they’re a lot like predicting the weather a year from now.  It might be hot.  It might be cold.

Anyways, here is my prediction if the NDP is able to get its act in gear NOW:

• Current composition (based on 308 seats):
• Conservatives:  151 seats
• NDP:  99
• Liberals:  36
• Bloc:  4
• Green:  2
• Indie:  2
• Prediction (based on 338 seats):
• NDP:  157 +/- 15 seats, pushing them very close to a majority
• Conservatives:  117 seats,
• Liberals:  58 seats
• Bloc:  4
• Green:  1
• Indie:  0

Yup.  I’m a gambling man and I’m recommending that Mulcair et al become gamblers as well, rolling the dice in a few months based entirely on the Conservative approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline.  They need to build a plan that reminds ALL Canadians that our future does not have to be tainted by Dirty Oil.

At a minimum, we can all see that it’s vital that they find some way to work with the Liberals to ensure that they are in power long enough to create a substantially more democratic Parliament than what Stephen Harper is leaving us with.